ii) Prediction
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Currently not possible for earthquakes but OK for volcanoes!

Knowledge of volcanic processes is incomplete, but there have been great strides made in forecasting eruptions. Various physical processes can be monitored for changes which can signal an impending eruption. The record of past eruptions is also used to help determine what and where the risks are highest. At the present time, only 20% of volcanoes are being monitored. As might be expected this is mainly in MEDCs such as Japan and the USA which have the researchers, technology and cash to undertake these activities. Even in these areas records are not complete. An example of a closely monitored volcano is Sakurijama, In South Kyushu, Japan (below).

In countries lacking the financial and technological resources for such monitoring, more basic but still useful techniques have been used. In the Philippines, local people are trained to look out for early-warning signs such as sulphur odours, steam releases and crater glow.

Once scientists have detected signs of activity the events must be interpreted to produce a hazard assessment and prediction of what will happen. Only then can government officials and other agencies such as the news media be informed and warnings and evacuation be introduced to the general public. This is still difficult to do accurately, and interpretations may differ among the scientists involved. This was to some extent the case with Nevado del Ruiz and led to the delay of the warning to the Colombian government, although the hazard map eventually produced was very accurate. The ashfalls were confined to the marked areas and the valleys like the Lagunillas (leading to Armero town) were affected by lahars as predicted.

Volcanoes often show signs if impending eruption and monitoring can be increased as the volcano becomes active. Case studies include Pinatubo, Philippines and the Caribbean island of Montserrat with the Soufriere Hills volcano http://www.mvo.ms/ 

 
  Monitoring Sakurajima  
   
  The city of Kagoshima (500,000 population) lies close to Sakurajima volcano. The Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Kyoto University's Sakurajima Volcanological Observatory (SVO) use all the latest technology to monitor events. Below is a list of a series of events that appear to indicate the build-up of an eruption.  
  1. A gradual swelling of land around the volcano, as magma from far below the ground starts to build up. At Sakurajima, this is marked by a rise in the seabed of northern Kagoshima Bay, with consequent changes in tide levels on the Sakurajima shore elative to thosea round Kagoshima city.  
  2. As the magma starts to flow, melting and splitting of basement rock will be detectable as volcanic earthquakes. At Sakurajima, they occur two to five kms below the surface, either directly beneath the crater or SSW of it.  
  3. With the magma coming closer to the surface, earthquakes will become more frequent, moving ever closer to the surface and to the base of the volcano.  
  4. At this time groundwater levels may change, the temperature of hot spring waters may rise and the chemical composition of and the amount of gases released may alter. The ratio of hydrogen chloride to sulphur dioxide in gas emitted from the volcano's active crater i9ncreases during earthquake swarms and shortly before an eruption. Remote sensing is used to monitor gases because it is too dangerous to go to Sakurajima's summit.  
  5. As an eruption approaches, the extensometer/tiltmeter system measures minute movements of the mountain. Data is continuously relayed to an automatic monitoring system at the SVO.  
  6. Finally, seismometers detect earthquakes which occur immediately beneath the crater, signalling the onset of the eruption. They occur 1 to 1.5 seconds before the explosion at the crater bottom.  
  7. The violence of the eruption may correlate with the length of the preceding dormant period, but it is also closely linked with the viscosity of the underground magma. The harder it is for the gases to escape, the more violent it is when the pressure is finally released with the 'uncorking' of the volcano. Magma is blasted skywards, cooling and solidifying as it comes through the air. It can vary in size from a fine dust to boulders as large as houses. Some fragments form 'bombs' that can fly at speeds of up to 300kph out of the volcano, finally landing some kms away. Most of the released magma forms pyroclastic flows of rock, ash and poisonous gases that can sweep down the mountainside at hurricane speeds.  
  8. Following the initial explosion there is a general calming down. Lava - essentially magma from which the gases have escaped - may or may not be released, usually flowing from parasitic craters on the side of the volcano or from side fissures opened up by the eruption. Since 1955 Sakurajima has only ever erupted from its summit, with no release of lava.  
  9. With the passing of the explosion, the extensometer / tiltmeter system records a settling of the mountain. Subsidence of the surrounding land is detected after either prolonged periods of eruptive activity or the release of large amounts of magma.  
   
  Sakurajima volcano and Kagoshima City and the other is Vesuvius volcano overlooking modern Naples - what is the message? (What happened to the old city of Pompeii?)  
  http://hakone.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/unzen/sakura/sakura.html  Sakurajima Volcanogical Observatory