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  "Drought is a relatively long term hazard. It is a slow onset hazard gradually getting worse over time. Presumably this gives agencies longer lead times to prepare their emergency response measures?"  
     
  Case Study of a Tropical High Pressure Hazard showing its short and long term effects.  
     
  Kenyan Drought 2009.  
     
  Essay:  
  Assess the short-term and long-term effects of the hazards associated with high pressure (anticyclone) systems in either Tropical or Temperate regions. Adapted from Legacy paper Jan 2006.  
     
  Examine the short-term and long-term effects of the hazards associated with high pressure (anticyclone) systems [25] Adapted Specimen Paper 2009  
  Candidates should:
i)    show knowledge of the short term effects of high pressure hazards;
ii)   show knowledge of long term effects
iii)  give an assessment of both time scales

There may be reference to the human effects such as:
Demographic effects at both time scales such as deaths and long term migration.
Economic effects may analyse losses in the short term such as cessation of production and costs of damage in the long term, such as the effects on economic activity and infrastructure.
Social effects may include observations on health, homelessness and bereavement.
There may also be consideration of the effects on the physical environment such as deforestation, desertification, falling water tables and salinisation.

Evaluation may take a number of approaches, an assessment of which effects are the most important, demographic, social, economic or environmental; an assessment of whether short or long term effects are most significant or an evaluation in different areas, MEDC / LEDC.

In order to reach the 'GOOD' band (16+ out of 25), in addition to factual content of the impacts associated with low pressure systems, there needs to be some critical assessment of these. Full mark scheme criteria here.

 
     
  You could research any one TROPICAL high pressure drought event in detail e.g. Australia 2009, Kenya 2009, or The Sahel Droughts of the 1970s and 1980s. The material below concentrates on Kenya (LEDC ) 2009.  
     
  Summarise Long and Short Term Effects under the side headings - environmental, demographic, economic and social.  
     
  Kenya: Savanna Climate and Climate zones within Kenya [KI4]  
  Natural Physical Causes: Kenya has always experienced DROUGHTS. Nearly 80% of the land is officially classed as arid, and people have adapted over centuries to living with little water.  
     
  Although Kenya lies on the equator, annual rainfall over most of the country is surprisingly low and rather variable from year to year. This is because the intertropical belt of cloud and rain passes rather quickly across Kenya in April and October and because the predominant seasonal winds, the north and south monsoons as they are called in East Africa, have a track parallel to the coast and have already passed over large areas of land before reaching Kenya.
There is a double rainy season between March and May and between November and December, with two intervening dry seasons. Temperatures over much of Kenya are subtropical or temperate, because of the reduction of temperature with altitude, and are similar to those in California, summer in France or southern Britain rather than those elsewhere in equatorial Africa.
 
  http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/world/country_guides/results.shtml?tt=TT000300  
  Kenya Regions  
 

The variety of relief and the range of altitude in Kenya produce a considerable number of distinctive local climates and local weather too numerous to be detailed here. The country can be divided broadly into four climatic regions, each with certain features of equatorial climates.

The Northern Frontier Districts and the Lower Inland Plateau

Much of this region has a very low annual rainfall for an equatorial region. Rainfall is generally below 500 mm and in the far north is often below 250 mm.

In the lower districts temperatures are high round the year, there is much sunshine, and the region is a typical hot desert like the adjoining southern parts of Somalia and Ethiopia. Humidity is low and, apart from occasional excessive heat, it is a healthy climate.

The Kenya Highlands
Most of this region lies between 1,220m and 2,150m and occupies the centre and west of the country on either side of the eastern Rift valley, extending to the Ugandan border. It is the most densely populated part of the country and contains the most productive agricultural land.

There is a double rainy season but rainfall is moderate and only exceeds 1,250mm a year on the higher parts. Over most of the region the sunniest time of the year is from December to March. The cloudiest period is from June to September when there is much drizzle but little heavy rain. This period is often called 'winter' in the Kenya Highlands and the evenings may feel chilly compared with the sunnier months.

The Coastal Region
The average annual rainfall is over 1,000mm, except in the north where it is rather less

The higher mountain regions
These are the small regions above 2,500m and isolated higher mountains such as Mount Elgon and Mount Kenya. Here temperatures fall low enough for frost to occur and at higher levels some precipitation may be snow. Mount Kenya has permanent snowfields.

 
     
  Human Causes:  
  What has happened this year is the latest of many interwoven ecological disasters which have resulted from deforestation, over-grazing, the extraction of far too much water, and massive population growth.  
     
  Climate change  
  "In the past we used to have regular 10-year climatic cycles which were always followed by a major drought. In the 1970s we started having droughts every seven years; in the 1980s they came about every five years and in the 1990s we were getting droughts and dry spells almost every two or three years. Since 2000 we have had three major droughts and several dry spells. Now they are coming almost every year, right across the country,"
Climate Change indicators - heatwaves are increasing. Temperatures are generally more extreme, water is evaporating faster, and the wells are drying. Larger areas are being affected by droughts, and flooding is now more serious.
 
     
     
  Kenyan Nomads affected by Drought 2009.  
 

 
  http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2009/sep/13/kenya-nomads-drought   Guardian video clip  
  http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2009/sep/13/kenya-nomads-drought   Guardian  article  
     
 

Continuing Drought in NE Kenya 2009 - LEDC

 

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fWU0lKVwhA

 
 
  Drought in NE Kenya 2007 - LEDC  
 

 
  Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAEa66reTyg Unicef 2007  
     
  Turkana - Kenya: BBC News 22nd October 2009  
 

 
  Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8321575.stm  
     
  Kenya Drought Causes and Effects - Jigsaw Activity:  
   

Click here for full screen version

 
  Source: http://classtools.net/widgets/jigsaw_4/JD4OD.htm  
     
  2009 Drought in Kenya and Its Humanitarian Consequences:  
 

 
  Source: United Nations Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) http://ochaonline.un.org/kenya/Meetings/Presentations/tabid/4129/language/en-US/Default.aspx  
     
  UNICEF film dealing with effects of drought in Kenya - 2009  
 

 
  Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2ha07LRTeE  
     
  Struggle for survival for Kenya's cattle owners (April 2009) AlJazeera Tv  
 

 

 
  Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fWU0lKVwhAA  
     
  Effects and causes of the 2009 Drought. Animated Book  
   

Click here for full screen version

 
  Made With: http://classtools.net/widgets/turningPage_8/sbAZf.htm
Source:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/sep/03/climate-change-kenya-10-10
 
     
  Kenya Drought: Decision Time (April 2009) UN  
 

 

 
  Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ze51U9sDHeE  
     
  Kajiado Drought (September 26 2009) NTV Kenya  
 

 

 
  Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2ha7DDVVa0  
     
  Kenya Drought on VOA's In Focus (September 22 2009) TV2Africa  
 

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  Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFVCIHd_7ak  
     
  Surviving the drought 12/09/09 NTV  
 

 

 
  Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UX-9BaX9pIg  
     
  Drought in Kenya Puts Elephants in Peril (10/09/09)  
 

 

 
  Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tCkJappgv0  
     
  Evaluation of one Management Strategy: [KI6]  
 

Drought is often viewed as an event rather than a process, which explains how the international community responds – distributing relief food to stricken communities. While nobody can dispute the benefits of doing this in emergency situations, widespread use of this response in drought management is highly debatable: not only does relief food tend to keep the receiving communities in a state of absolute dependency, but it also comes at a tremendous cost. During the 2000/2001 fiscal year, Kenya spent 140 million dollars on relief food. It is argued that with a quarter of this amount, the country could have put in place a much more effective and sustainable system to address long-term food insecurity in the ASALs (arid and semi-arid lands)

 
 
 

Source: http://www.worldagroforestry.org/downloads/publications/PDFs/NL06291.pdf

 
     
  Drought in Kenya - Masai Cows Dead 05/09/09  
 

 

 
  Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inGEE0iqx9w  
  Climate change is here and present. This Masai elder has lost all his cattle due to the prolonged drought in Kenya. Part of Future of Food series (BBC)